Safe, Value, and Risky tiers — what prediction confidence means

Prediction confidence is not a guarantee — it is how strongly the statistical signals align on a published market. We translate that number into three public tiers so you can match risk appetite to signal strength before kickoff.

Evidence

The Poisson goal-rate engine produces market probabilities from rolling goals, form, injuries, head-to-head, standings, and classified news. Signal consensus ranks each candidate market; the winning market’s confidence becomes the pick’s headline number.

Tier thresholds are fixed and public:

• Safe — prediction confidence ≥75%
• Value — ≥60%
• Risky — ≥50%

A 74% signal is Value, not Safe. A 49% signal does not publish in Phase 1. Free accounts see one featured pick at 95%+ confidence per day; paid users browse all tier tabs in the upcoming window.

Implications

Tiers replace tipster narratives like “lock of the day.” They tell you how hard the engine is leaning — not that the bet cannot lose. Calibration lives in graded hit rates by tier on the track record page once sample sizes allow.

Higher tiers should hit more often over many fixtures, but variance is real. One Safe miss does not invalidate the system; transparent grading across dozens of World Cup matches does.

The Verdict

Use tiers to filter attention, not to chase certainty. Pair Safe picks with stricter bankroll rules; use Risky picks when you accept more variance for stronger odds elsewhere.

See thresholds and markets on methodology or the Safe · Value · Risky tiers glossary entry.