Prediction confidence

Prediction confidence is a percentage score on each published pick. It reflects how strongly the Poisson engine and supporting signals agree on that market and outcome — not the raw chance of winning, and not a promise of profit.

Confidence incorporates form, injuries, standings, head-to-head, match news, and goal-rate inputs. Stronger consensus across signals raises the score; missing data or conflicting signals lower it.

Confidence drives tier labels (Safe, Value, Risky) and helps you match risk appetite to signal strength. We publish graded hit rates after full-time so you can judge calibration over many picks, not one result.