Graded pick

A graded pick is any published selection that received a post-match result once scores sync. Hits match the market outcome; misses do not; pushes apply where the market allows (rare on 2.5 totals).

Marketing proof grids and performance dashboards count graded picks only — not hypothetical lines, not user bookmarks, and not unpublished engine outputs. Skip-push picks are excluded from hit-rate denominators where product rules require.

Graded history is how we show transparency: wins and losses together. A single graded miss does not reset the record; aggregate hit rate by tier is the calibration view.