Signal consensus

Signal consensus measures alignment across the statistical inputs that feed prediction confidence — not agreement between humans or tipsters.

When form, news, and Poisson rates all favour the same market (for example home 1X2 and Under 2.5), confidence tends higher and the pick may land in Safe tier. Conflicting signals — hot form but key striker out — lower confidence and may cap the tier at Value or Risky.

Consensus is why two fixtures with similar raw win percentages can carry different tier labels. The percentage reflects market lean strength; the tier reflects how cleanly the evidence stack supports it.