xG (expected goals)

Expected goals (xG) estimates how many goals a team should score from the chances they create. Broadcasters and analysts use full shot-location xG; Bet Bet Bam uses a lighter proxy built from rolling goals and shots on target.

Our proxy blends shots on target and total shots into an attack-rate input for the Poisson goal algorithm. It nudges goal expectations when a team is creating chances without converting — or scoring above their chance quality.

xG proxy is one input among form, injuries, standings, head-to-head, and match news. It never publishes a pick by itself.